IGTA Journal - Autumn 2017

imbalances. The world has never before been so much in debt as it is now (a paradox for Europeans who are tightening their belts), whereas history tells us that every crisis in the past has had its origin in excessive debt. That really is a worry, surely? Stock market capitalisations have hit unprecedented levels. We are being told that robots are about to change the way we live, and also that they may make us obsolete in the fullness of time. It is easy to understand the fears of some of the doomsayers. "Nothing has changed" (David Bowie) But "sleep peacefully, good people!", the politicians are telling us. We have replaced private debt with public debt, and will try to fix it in due course. The problem has been shifted from one place to another without being resolved. Total debt has continued to rise irreparably. The banking system has certainly been consolidated, more in appearance than in fact. We may hope that the complex short-circuit mechanism that has been put in place will work if it is needed. We may hope that systemic risk will be avoided or at least mitigated. Not being just a little worried would be absolute folly. Always being negative and pessimistic about everything is hardly any better. There are risk situations that need to be borne in mind and watched carefully. We need to believe that our contemporaries have learnt from their mistakes and that what happened in the past will not happen again. We at least know that we have been able to withstand one unique catastrophe in modern economic history. Unfortunately, having withstood one major storm in no way guarantees we will be immune and safe from the next one. The economy is transforming so fast that the main risk is that things run out of control or move too fast for the brakes to be put on. World digitalisation is a source of hope and progress, but also risks that we must no longer ignore. In the final analysis, has nothing really changed? At the end of the day, is everything still the same? No, we think not. We are stronger. Each crisis has been allowed to arise through a collective lack of understanding that has created a sort of blind spot on risk, which has stopped us having a clear view of everything that is sneaking up on us. On the other hand, no one is ever strong enough to withstand storms, so the best defences are vigilance and prevention. Let us hope that this one really will be the last for a very long time. IGTA eJournal | Autumn 2017 | 44