IGTA Journal - Summer 2020

COMMENT treasurers.org/thetreasurer June/July 2020 09 away too much from market- based models. The critical point is that, as long as many societies remain open to the sharing of ideas, globalisation may continue to ourish, but in a more nuanced form. As we enter even further into the age of information, globalisation may take the form of increased sharing and pooling of ideas. Coupled with revolutionary production technologies such as advanced robotics and 3D printing that make it cheap to manufacture items locally or even at home, consumers will bene t from increased trade in blueprints rather than in goods. Technological advances may make onshoring more cost- e cient than importing. As these trends play out, we will likely see winners and losers within and across economies. On a sector basis, the post- coronavirus recovery will involve structurally higher growth for healthcare, technology and for the manufacturing of machine tools and advanced manufacturing equipment. Against these positive trends we will likely see structurally weaker growth in travel, shipping and traditional store retail. We may also see interesting distributional trends in commercial real estate, with slower gains in retail and o ce space set against faster growth in industrial space and warehouses. Across countries, the winners will likely be those nations with stronger legal systems and transparent institutions that will allow them to bene t the most from enhanced trade of information. Open societies, both advanced and emerging, will do well. Closed societies and those with less- than-transparent institutions, including the likes of China and Russia, will nd the new situation less favourable. An event on the scale of the virus pandemic and the recession will almost certainly have profound economic, nancial and political e ects that will be felt for a long time. No one can say for sure what is around the corner. However, economic logic and the lessons of history suggest that the global economy could look very di erent during the post-coronavirus recovery. Improving and reinforcing healthcare sectors across the world should not drag on economic growth Kallum Pickering is senior economist at Berenberg Bank IGTA eJournal | Summer 2020 | 38