IGTA Journal - Winter 2020/2021

So you are ready to perform ? We feel that we are very well positioned. We have been in talks with various possible vaccine production companies , as well as with governments. We are able to provide the necessary logistical infrastructure - in Germany, in entire Europe, in the Americas and Asia and especially also in the developing countries, where the infrastructure is not so elaborated. In your outlook for 2022, you are naming, depending on three business scenarios, three operating results. But the difference between the best-case and the worst-case-scenario is relatively small. Why ? You are right. In our outlook for 2022, we are naming, depending on three business scenarios, - a V-, a U-, and a L- shape scenario - three operating results. In the most unfavourable case, the L- path, the earnings before interest and taxes are expected to be at around 4,7 billion € . In the best possible case, the V- path, the Ebit in our estimate will exceed 5,3 billion € . Your question about the relatively small difference relates to the core of our business, which among others due to the structural growth driver E-commerce has become less dependent on the economic development. Among our five operating divisions - Post and Parcel Germany, Express, Air and Ocean Freight, Ware House Logistics and E-Commerce Solutions - several ones have developed very positively this year, because they are driven very strongly by E- commerce. Which are they ? Parcel Germany, Express and E-Commerce Solutions. In the division E-Commerce Solutions, as an example, we have seen an enormous acceleration of growth. In the third quarter sales have grown organically by 30 %. We believe, that the structural growth driver E-commerce will present to us great potential in both positive and in less positive recovery scenarios. But there are certainly also factors of uncertainty ? The biggest variable in our forecast is: How will be the recovery in the traditional, industrial and rather B2B driven business parts go? This uncertainty is reflected in the spreading of our forecast. In spite of all, the Group is not any more a typical cyclical one ? Right. The dependency of the Deutsche Post DHL Group from the economic cycle is not that strong anymore. We still, though, have businesses where we feel this dependency. That is why we had in the air and sea freight business in the third quarter double digit volume decreases. At the same time, however, there will here see again increases along with the cyclical upturn. In spite of the lower freight volume you, however, achieved, through significant price increases for the scarce transport capacities a significant profit growth. Here one must differentiate between Express and Air Freight. In the Express business we use our own freight planes. These we need essentially for our own express deliveries. But there are also free capacities, which we sell off into the free air freight market. In Express we had two effects: We had to fly ourselves to more destinations, because passenger flights did not happen any more; this at first has increased the costs. At the same time we could sell parts of the remaining capacities on the new destinations; this has then produced a certain equalization. But IGTA eJournal | Winter 2020/21 | 21