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Other major economic consequences to be expected
and considered:
Britain, as
a locaon for European Union Instuons,
will disconnue to be so.
As a consequence, the seat of EBA, the European
Banking Authority, will have to be moved to another
member country of the European Union.
Another key area, is the future role of the Brish London
financial market and locaon. As complex, as this subject
is, the direcon is clear and twofold: London will remain
a leading financial market, servicing the world. But the
role of the London Financial Market locaon as it relates
to the European Union, will diminish. And other sites
within the European Union will be the beneficiaries,
among them Amsterdam, Dublin, Paris, Luxemburg, and
Frankfurt on Main.
In this context, it remains to be seen, whether the
European Union´s scheme of the “single passport”, also
called “European passport” in the field of regulaon
of the services of banks and financial conglomerates
will be maintained for Britain or not. Credit instuons
with a licence in any European Union country and
European Economic Area (EEA) country, are in principle
permied to carry on their business in other member
states, too, without further authorisaon requirements
in such countries. Cross-border business may be
carried on either through a local branch (“freedom
of establishment”) or by means of free movement of
services (“freedom to provide”)
Many non-European banks have their European
subsidiary headquarters in Britain and based on the
single passport operate branches or direct to the market
acvies in other European Member States. If the single
passport status is not maintained for Britain, such banks,
and also Brish banks, when wishing to do banking
business in the remaining European Union, have to go
there with an European banking subsidiary headquarter
and have to go through the local approval process for
such banking subsidiary.
Also, the merger between the London Stock Exchange
and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange will probably be halted
by the sovereign regulators. Everything else would be a
surprise, notwithstanding the noise in the media.
Last, but not least: Should the significant net Payer
payments by Britain to the European Union be stopped
completely, and should the remaining 27 member
countries of the European Union not make up for this
loss of net payments, then in the worst case such loss
of net payments will be to the detriment of the net
payment Receiver countries, i. e. the economically
weaker countries of the European Union. They will then,
sadly, receive less financial support from the European
Union, making such Union for them less aracve.
Brexit: Consequences -Poli!cal Consequences.
They are many:
The immediate queson is: What went wrong, that the
second largest economy of the European Union decided,
to get out of it completely?
Since the Brexit vote, there is daily discussion on this
by almost all famous policians, economists, business
people, philosophers, etc., you name it.
One school of thought, which is also powerful in
Germany, calls now for more Europe, for more European
integraon, for moving more sovereign power from the
naon states to
Brussels, to the degree of creang an European Finance
Minister with full control over naonal budgets, and
for creang a European President directly elected by
the people, and other proposals making the European
Union more like a uniform centralized state throughout
the connent.
Chances for this to happen have decreased dramacally
in recent years. The single naonal states seem less
than before inclined to give away more parts of their
sovereignty than before.
Another school of thought calls for less Europe, to the
degree of requests in more single naonal states to
opt for leaving the EU, or at least the Euro, by way of
a referendum. This is a trend of thought. Europe is far
from where this trend is poinng to. But here are some
supporng signs for this trend:
There is the rise of naonal so called populist pares
in several European countries, calling for a smaller
role of the European Union or even an exit from the
European Union, or at least from the Euro, by way of
a referendum. The fact is, there are public requests for
such referendums now, more than before.
The biggest such movement is the rise of the Front
Naonal in France, which as per the present polls is the
biggest party in France, though it is said to be far from
ge!ng a French majority vote.
There are similar movements in Finland, Denmark,
Sweden, Netherlands, Italy, lately also Germany, and
others.
Within Britain, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted
against the Brexit. It remains to be seen, whether
Scotland will again request a referendum about leaving
the United Kingdom and thereby paving the way for
remaining in the European Union.
In the past, Sweden had a referendum on staying out
of the Euro and on maintaining the Swedish Krona.
Denmark got the contractual guaranty from the EU, that
it does not have to introduce the Euro, even if it would
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