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LETTER OF THE CHAIRMAN
Dear Colleagues,
Some days ago Great Britain voted to leave the
European Union. What happens now? Nothing
immediate, legally speaking. The British referendum
will be followed by withdrawal negotiations
between the British government and the remaining
27 members over a period of two years, at most.
First of all, the 2.5 million EU nationals n the UK
are unlikely to suffer serious consequences from
Brexit. However the destiny of those who will move
to the UK from now on, and of those British citizens
currently living in a EU country is less predictable. It’s
on the international financial market that Brexit has
already shown its effects. In the aftermath of Brexit,
the markets tumbled: sterling dropped against the
dollar over 10 per cent and gold prices soared 22%,
the fastest gold rally ever recorded.
Moreover, Brexit may embolden other countries’
desire to leaveEurope, to thepointwhere the real risk
of Brexit seems to be the domino effect, which may
lead to the disintegration of the European concept.
Eurosceptics in France, Germany, Netherlands, and
Italy reacted with euphoria and may step up calls for
referenda for their own countries.
Over the years, UK has become the western country
most open to China and a strategic launching pad
for Chinese investment into Europe. With Brexit this
Golden era may come to the end and China may be
forced to readjust its economic relationship with the
EU. The very first reaction in China to the vote was
the yuan suffering the biggest one-day drop since its
devaluation last August.
Uncertainty is palpable, and the potential
consequences of Brexit are hard to foresee at this
time. Three scenarios are likely to emerge. In the first
option, Britain remains a member of the European
Economic Area, like Norway, and will preserve the
so-called four freedoms of the EU, in which people,
goods, services and capital move freely among
countries. A more realistic option imagines a
comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, based on the
Swiss model. Lastly, UK may also pursue unilateral
liberalisation and negotiate trade deals on better
terms with single countries.
On another matter, I have the pleasure to
communicate that IAFEI World Congress 2016 will
be held in South Africa!
Inside and on the web site you can find more
information about the event.
It’s the first time in IAFEI’s history that a World
Congress will be held in Africa: it’s a big opportunity,
it’s a symbolic but very important opening towards a
new scenario, it’s a step on an economic and cultural
journey.
We will be proud if IAFEI can perform this task
properly!
Fausto Cosi
IAFEI Chairman
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